Over on The Boomer’s blog, an article immediately jumped out at me titled, “Why have I stopped posting maps of the situation in the Ukraine and a few other questions”. Funny enough, I was planning to write a similar post explaining why I wasn’t giving updates on the war situation in the Donbass. Let me post mine first before we get into Saker’s.
Saker never ceases to impress. There was actually a funny comment on that Saker post where some guy was like "why can't you just admit you misread the situation?" and then of course Mr. Saker launched into a 10,000 word tirade about "trolls."
I missed saker when he 1st took a break. Then the saker team got it together & it seemed worth the read. Then saker came back & seems to be frothing at the mouth with hatred. So I deleted the link some days ago.
I'm 3rd generation American & have been a misfit toy in the US since day 1. So were my friends growing up. So is most everybody to some degree. There is no home or community or culture that I can see. What passes as community in the boondocks seems to be a collection of petty arguments piled up in some cases over a few generations.
I read several analysts, former military & not. My take: you don't go into any big venture without some idea of plan "b." I think the initial "race to kiev" was simply the start to both plan a & b. Plan A: nice if Z folded, but not expected or counted on, so Plan B: keep Ukr busy protecting Kiev while setting up in the east & south.
And American substacker goon living in Kiev that I sometimes check in on laughed constantly about Russia's "laziness" in occasionally dropping a missile or occasionally pressing forward only to retreat. I think they were doing exactly as the analysts I follow (and my riding teacher) said: do as much as necessary, as little as possible.
Everything after that start is LIFE, ie what happens when you're making other plans.
Nothing big & complex (and many things simple & small) goes exactly as expected or planned or hoped for.
To the degree that when all the chips do fall into place, it's either God's plan or you're being set up for a huge fall.
It is very complicated indeed, trying to balance so many balls in the air, catching them all and causing too much damage. I have never heard of a war or military operation that allows the target nation to retain it's communications system, rail system, bridges and some airports and seaports to remain operational. Russia does not seem to want to inflict devastating damages on their fellow Slavs. Difficult to fight with one hand tied behind your back.
You have hit on many of the same problems that plague the West in general. Unless those nations rid themselves of their incompetent ruling elites, they will be goners, but will take down many others with them.
so true, I've bee reading the Saker for a few weeks, because it was super interesting to have another point of view different from euro-propaganda, but in the end, these guys are hater the west, with the same SJW view that the root of all evil relies in the West, and that when China will be the main empire, the garden of Eden will reopen its doors... they have wiped out 500 years of pure western genius in terms of technology and civilization and will realise it when the heartless bugmen become the social norm, with super-IA controls your everyday move, and everyone look at kids being run over or drowning without a single move of empathy
For inexplicable reasons, American Voters are mostly concerned about mismanagement, corruption, lawlessness, and social collapse. The Media on the other hand, are mostly trying to counter these democratic impulses, by erecting elaborate motifs explaining to the people why they should be ashamed for upholding their own values. In the background, mainstream social media is struggling mightily to suppress the slightest socially renegade attitudes, by diligently branding dissent as disinformation, and by engaging in character assassination, no matter how implausible.
So, if it's any consolation, don't feel that malignant media coverage is targeted only at Slavland. To roughly paraphrase how Orr once counseled Yossarian in the WWII satire Catch-22: "Don't take the flak shots personally; they're trying to kill everybody." Western media coverage is also targeting its own people; something like Ukrainian artillery. They're trying to make West emulate 1990's Russia, and the irony is, only 1990's Russia ahas escaped.
Catch-22 is a unique outpouring, and very much was a boomer's book (apologies if you've already read it.). It's become a part of our civilization's expression, as much as Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, Lermontov, and, ok, I'll add Taras Shevchenko and lament the destryed Bamiyan statues. But Catch-22 is about America directly, then about Italy, now Russia and Ukraine, and more that we haven't yet experienced.
As a US citizen surrounded by victims of mass media mendacity, I have been thankful for sources like the Saker blog. But like you, I have tired of his claims of a flawless rollout of the Russian project in Ukraine, and his tendency to denounce all critics as trolls.
Regarding,
"the Kremlin, unfortunately, went along with the vax hoax and we’re seeing people dropping dead from Sputnik in Russia as well.",
as a change from Ukraine reporting I suggest you investigate why Russian went along with the hoax, post your story, and also find more than anecdotal evidence of fatalities from the Sputnik injection. Give us a report on this from Slavland.
"Basically, the man is incoherent, is what I’m saying. I feel uncomfortable with him representing the Russian race to the Western dissident world."
Regarding Russian interests: What are the benefits from the Russian POV of supporting Dissident Rightists in the West, Dissident Rightists who would stop the decline and indeed reverse it if they were actually in power?
Putin has already made numerous appeals to "Third Worldist" sentiments, obviously just diplomatic chess but nonetheless a representation of the Russian race to the Western dissident world - Putin is correct, there is no reason to assume a homogenous gentile run West wouldn't be opposed to Russian interests, better to let it die slowly by itself without any Russian input.
The Russia-West Rightist brotherhood only seems real in the imagination of Romantics, perhaps influenced by Russian propaganda which also sells to the Third World backwaters that Russia alone will defeat the evil West who have been keeping them down for all these years (sigh).
The position of the Nordic Resistance Movement is the most sane, neither side is good or bad for Western genetic interests from the POV of those living in race replacionist societies. The "Russia based vs Azov based" just strikes me as a battle between two RW Eastern European propaganda spheres vying to turn the eternally online Western online Dissident Right into their mouthpieces.
Something similar happened last year with Muslims trying to get people to shill for "based Islam" after the Taliban took power.
EDIT: A good example of this is the attitudes of the butthurt belt towards Russia. Ethnically homogenous and Judenfrei yet the most hostile and anti-Russia. Why not just send refugees there way via Belarus? Who cares if there are some "based" anti-semites and nationalists in Poland?
1. "I also think it was quite clear that the West would get involved if the war wasn’t wrapped up quickly." Spot on, and against the prevalent opinion that the Russians hasd time on their side.
2. There's a lot of speculation about what Russia's REAL plans were/are. Andre Martyanov said that the Russians probably have 5 or 10 plans in place, depending on how things turn out. In the Kiev debacle, for example, they must have had some idea of what they would do if the city couldn't be taken for some reason. That's probably true with almost everything else. I imagine there are constant discussions about plans, contingencies, and what action should be taken in any anticipated eventuality. It's hard to believe Russia, and NATO, wouldn't be doing that.
I have no way of knowing one way or another whether the Kremlin/Military had the SMO well planned with all kinds of contingencies taken into account & so forth. But, the main factor that I see on the ground is the deployment of forces, what Russia has actually put in the field, not accounting for the DPR & LPR militias. And that for me is the key. I skimmed Saker's piece, I can't remember whether he stressed this point or not, whether he mentioned it, or not. He probably did. It is a point Martyanov stresses a lot, & to me, that seems reasonable. My feeling has been that the Kremlin is purposely going slow, for a whole range of reasons, others have commented on saving lives, casualty rates & such, & that may be correct, but for me the main overriding reason - above all other reasons there may be - is that this is to do with escalation with NATO/west. In conversation with detractors, I have said this: what would have happened had Russia won over the entire Ukraine in say a month? Or two? Or if Zelensky fell in the first couple of weeks? I am absolutely convinced that a direct confrontation with the US would have been on the cards. But this way, the escalation gets delayed, Russia gets to limit the extent of military operations with a minimal amount of destruction. And, another good point made by someone I don't really respect, I won't name him, but I had to agree with the logic, Russia is battle testing its soldiers. If Russia is to go up against NATO directly at some point, they have to have battle hardened troops. It is almost like being outnumbered on the ground is intentional on the Kremlin's part in order to train the soldiery in live combat & get used to not having the overall advantage, at least numerically. I don't say this to blow sunshine up Putin's rear - I have plenty of criticisms of his management, despite my overall positive opinion, but this is what I think is going on. I don't think the Kremlin made mistakes, or misjudged, or failed to plan well, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this, & when compared to the Syria operation, I would say they know what they are doing. Therefore I conclude there are reasons why the Ukraine SMO is being conducted the way it is.
«what is the point of an attrition campaign waged against what the Kremlin itself says are “brother Slavs”?»
There is no war of attrition against the troops, there is a war of attrition against the logistics. The "special military operation" is a siege operation, combined with some taking territory to protect it from retaliation. Which retaliation actually happened in 2014 when the ukrainian fascists cut off water, food, fuel, electricity from the Donbas and started massacring them.
The RF "special military operation" seems to me about a spring and summer campaign to reduce as much as possible ukrainian GDP and logistics, and then "winter is coming". I doubt that the ukrainian fascists will be able to resupply their military this winter, as they don't have the money or the transport capacity, as the frontline is a long way away from the polish and romanian borders.
The ukrainian fascists will probably be unable to supply their civilian population either, who anyhow do not have enough money to buy heating, electricity, food even if they were available. I guess 10-20 million central ukrainians will emigrate to the EU this winter, long lines of refugees walking in the snow.
Andrei Martyanov: "Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics." Metaphorically speaking, Slavsquat cannot see the sky for the grass beneath his feet.
Occidentalism is one more stupid ideology for ZOG to exploit. In my opinion , only general non traditional depraved western morale is problematic. We should find and discuss good points in western society. We should also discuss why Russia didn't manage to provide world with same(perpetual threats with war?, sanctions? brain drain?). Serbs would ask: Ko nas bre zavadi? It means something like: Whom can we blame for our fight?
Another excellent article. I have been reading your stuff for a while now, and noticed that you are sometimes referring to a book (that you are writing)?
Amazon does not yield anything for your name. Nor seems the internet to show anything but your articles.
Regarding Saker's new map phobia: it's for the best.
As Marko pointed out, our favorite Boomer was copy-pasting worthless Readovka maps--with the "Readovka" logo conveniently cropped out of the image:
https://anti-empire.com/readovka-confirms-their-red-war-map-was-garbage-all-along-but-you-knew-that-already/
Saker never ceases to impress. There was actually a funny comment on that Saker post where some guy was like "why can't you just admit you misread the situation?" and then of course Mr. Saker launched into a 10,000 word tirade about "trolls."
It is what it is.
I missed saker when he 1st took a break. Then the saker team got it together & it seemed worth the read. Then saker came back & seems to be frothing at the mouth with hatred. So I deleted the link some days ago.
I'm 3rd generation American & have been a misfit toy in the US since day 1. So were my friends growing up. So is most everybody to some degree. There is no home or community or culture that I can see. What passes as community in the boondocks seems to be a collection of petty arguments piled up in some cases over a few generations.
I read several analysts, former military & not. My take: you don't go into any big venture without some idea of plan "b." I think the initial "race to kiev" was simply the start to both plan a & b. Plan A: nice if Z folded, but not expected or counted on, so Plan B: keep Ukr busy protecting Kiev while setting up in the east & south.
And American substacker goon living in Kiev that I sometimes check in on laughed constantly about Russia's "laziness" in occasionally dropping a missile or occasionally pressing forward only to retreat. I think they were doing exactly as the analysts I follow (and my riding teacher) said: do as much as necessary, as little as possible.
Everything after that start is LIFE, ie what happens when you're making other plans.
Nothing big & complex (and many things simple & small) goes exactly as expected or planned or hoped for.
To the degree that when all the chips do fall into place, it's either God's plan or you're being set up for a huge fall.
It is very complicated indeed, trying to balance so many balls in the air, catching them all and causing too much damage. I have never heard of a war or military operation that allows the target nation to retain it's communications system, rail system, bridges and some airports and seaports to remain operational. Russia does not seem to want to inflict devastating damages on their fellow Slavs. Difficult to fight with one hand tied behind your back.
You have hit on many of the same problems that plague the West in general. Unless those nations rid themselves of their incompetent ruling elites, they will be goners, but will take down many others with them.
Hello Rolo,
I have never been able to read anything by the Saker and take it seriously. Now it seems the mummy went into the coffin.
Thank you for your honesty and real openness.
I have a question on Misha Firer, an active Quora member who provides (mis)information on Moscow and Russia. Example of his posts.
https://qr.ae/pvwycK
https://qr.ae/pvwycf
https://qr.ae/pvwycZ
Naive questions.
Is the story of Christina Ray any common, or did he just manage to take an extreme case and present it as common ?
Are there soldiers returning from the campaign in Ukraine that are dumped by the military/medical authorities and turn homeless ?
Does the Russian army really recruit in prisons ?
so true, I've bee reading the Saker for a few weeks, because it was super interesting to have another point of view different from euro-propaganda, but in the end, these guys are hater the west, with the same SJW view that the root of all evil relies in the West, and that when China will be the main empire, the garden of Eden will reopen its doors... they have wiped out 500 years of pure western genius in terms of technology and civilization and will realise it when the heartless bugmen become the social norm, with super-IA controls your everyday move, and everyone look at kids being run over or drowning without a single move of empathy
>>Race riots? MAGA terrorism? A polar bear dying somewhere? Gorilla Flu? China? Iran?<<
Top 5 results of a Rasmussen pole comparing concerns of 2 groups
VOTER CONCERNS_____________________MEDIA CONCERNS
1. Rising gas prices_______________________1. Climate Change
2. Inflation______________________________2, Ukraine War
3. The Economy_________________________3. Capitol riot investigation
4. Violent Crime_________________________ 4. Covid-19
5. Election Integrity_______________________ 5. LGBTQ Issues
(From https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/-coffee-and-covid-wednesday-july-c7c?utm_source=email)
For inexplicable reasons, American Voters are mostly concerned about mismanagement, corruption, lawlessness, and social collapse. The Media on the other hand, are mostly trying to counter these democratic impulses, by erecting elaborate motifs explaining to the people why they should be ashamed for upholding their own values. In the background, mainstream social media is struggling mightily to suppress the slightest socially renegade attitudes, by diligently branding dissent as disinformation, and by engaging in character assassination, no matter how implausible.
So, if it's any consolation, don't feel that malignant media coverage is targeted only at Slavland. To roughly paraphrase how Orr once counseled Yossarian in the WWII satire Catch-22: "Don't take the flak shots personally; they're trying to kill everybody." Western media coverage is also targeting its own people; something like Ukrainian artillery. They're trying to make West emulate 1990's Russia, and the irony is, only 1990's Russia ahas escaped.
More quotes at https://www.thoughtco.com/catch-22-quotes-739155.
Catch-22 is a unique outpouring, and very much was a boomer's book (apologies if you've already read it.). It's become a part of our civilization's expression, as much as Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, Lermontov, and, ok, I'll add Taras Shevchenko and lament the destryed Bamiyan statues. But Catch-22 is about America directly, then about Italy, now Russia and Ukraine, and more that we haven't yet experienced.
As a US citizen surrounded by victims of mass media mendacity, I have been thankful for sources like the Saker blog. But like you, I have tired of his claims of a flawless rollout of the Russian project in Ukraine, and his tendency to denounce all critics as trolls.
Regarding,
"the Kremlin, unfortunately, went along with the vax hoax and we’re seeing people dropping dead from Sputnik in Russia as well.",
as a change from Ukraine reporting I suggest you investigate why Russian went along with the hoax, post your story, and also find more than anecdotal evidence of fatalities from the Sputnik injection. Give us a report on this from Slavland.
"Basically, the man is incoherent, is what I’m saying. I feel uncomfortable with him representing the Russian race to the Western dissident world."
Regarding Russian interests: What are the benefits from the Russian POV of supporting Dissident Rightists in the West, Dissident Rightists who would stop the decline and indeed reverse it if they were actually in power?
Putin has already made numerous appeals to "Third Worldist" sentiments, obviously just diplomatic chess but nonetheless a representation of the Russian race to the Western dissident world - Putin is correct, there is no reason to assume a homogenous gentile run West wouldn't be opposed to Russian interests, better to let it die slowly by itself without any Russian input.
The Russia-West Rightist brotherhood only seems real in the imagination of Romantics, perhaps influenced by Russian propaganda which also sells to the Third World backwaters that Russia alone will defeat the evil West who have been keeping them down for all these years (sigh).
The position of the Nordic Resistance Movement is the most sane, neither side is good or bad for Western genetic interests from the POV of those living in race replacionist societies. The "Russia based vs Azov based" just strikes me as a battle between two RW Eastern European propaganda spheres vying to turn the eternally online Western online Dissident Right into their mouthpieces.
Something similar happened last year with Muslims trying to get people to shill for "based Islam" after the Taliban took power.
EDIT: A good example of this is the attitudes of the butthurt belt towards Russia. Ethnically homogenous and Judenfrei yet the most hostile and anti-Russia. Why not just send refugees there way via Belarus? Who cares if there are some "based" anti-semites and nationalists in Poland?
1. "I also think it was quite clear that the West would get involved if the war wasn’t wrapped up quickly." Spot on, and against the prevalent opinion that the Russians hasd time on their side.
2. There's a lot of speculation about what Russia's REAL plans were/are. Andre Martyanov said that the Russians probably have 5 or 10 plans in place, depending on how things turn out. In the Kiev debacle, for example, they must have had some idea of what they would do if the city couldn't be taken for some reason. That's probably true with almost everything else. I imagine there are constant discussions about plans, contingencies, and what action should be taken in any anticipated eventuality. It's hard to believe Russia, and NATO, wouldn't be doing that.
And Andrei Martyanov? https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com
Next to him,Andrei Raevsky (TheSaker.is) looks tame.
I have no way of knowing one way or another whether the Kremlin/Military had the SMO well planned with all kinds of contingencies taken into account & so forth. But, the main factor that I see on the ground is the deployment of forces, what Russia has actually put in the field, not accounting for the DPR & LPR militias. And that for me is the key. I skimmed Saker's piece, I can't remember whether he stressed this point or not, whether he mentioned it, or not. He probably did. It is a point Martyanov stresses a lot, & to me, that seems reasonable. My feeling has been that the Kremlin is purposely going slow, for a whole range of reasons, others have commented on saving lives, casualty rates & such, & that may be correct, but for me the main overriding reason - above all other reasons there may be - is that this is to do with escalation with NATO/west. In conversation with detractors, I have said this: what would have happened had Russia won over the entire Ukraine in say a month? Or two? Or if Zelensky fell in the first couple of weeks? I am absolutely convinced that a direct confrontation with the US would have been on the cards. But this way, the escalation gets delayed, Russia gets to limit the extent of military operations with a minimal amount of destruction. And, another good point made by someone I don't really respect, I won't name him, but I had to agree with the logic, Russia is battle testing its soldiers. If Russia is to go up against NATO directly at some point, they have to have battle hardened troops. It is almost like being outnumbered on the ground is intentional on the Kremlin's part in order to train the soldiery in live combat & get used to not having the overall advantage, at least numerically. I don't say this to blow sunshine up Putin's rear - I have plenty of criticisms of his management, despite my overall positive opinion, but this is what I think is going on. I don't think the Kremlin made mistakes, or misjudged, or failed to plan well, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this, & when compared to the Syria operation, I would say they know what they are doing. Therefore I conclude there are reasons why the Ukraine SMO is being conducted the way it is.
I'm a Jew, born in in Israel that now lives in the West and appreciate your writings.
I don't have any views or opinions anymore because everyone is mad.
«what is the point of an attrition campaign waged against what the Kremlin itself says are “brother Slavs”?»
There is no war of attrition against the troops, there is a war of attrition against the logistics. The "special military operation" is a siege operation, combined with some taking territory to protect it from retaliation. Which retaliation actually happened in 2014 when the ukrainian fascists cut off water, food, fuel, electricity from the Donbas and started massacring them.
The RF "special military operation" seems to me about a spring and summer campaign to reduce as much as possible ukrainian GDP and logistics, and then "winter is coming". I doubt that the ukrainian fascists will be able to resupply their military this winter, as they don't have the money or the transport capacity, as the frontline is a long way away from the polish and romanian borders.
The ukrainian fascists will probably be unable to supply their civilian population either, who anyhow do not have enough money to buy heating, electricity, food even if they were available. I guess 10-20 million central ukrainians will emigrate to the EU this winter, long lines of refugees walking in the snow.
Andrei Martyanov: "Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics." Metaphorically speaking, Slavsquat cannot see the sky for the grass beneath his feet.
Occidentalism is one more stupid ideology for ZOG to exploit. In my opinion , only general non traditional depraved western morale is problematic. We should find and discuss good points in western society. We should also discuss why Russia didn't manage to provide world with same(perpetual threats with war?, sanctions? brain drain?). Serbs would ask: Ko nas bre zavadi? It means something like: Whom can we blame for our fight?
Another excellent article. I have been reading your stuff for a while now, and noticed that you are sometimes referring to a book (that you are writing)?
Amazon does not yield anything for your name. Nor seems the internet to show anything but your articles.
Is there a book? or is it still being written?