Thank you for the article. Indeed, slinging around outrageous numbers like *any* "hundreds of thousands" is absurd from all that I have seen. Combat footage (if you want to call it that) generally is showing explosions of a vehicle from artillery, a small squad (recon) being vaped, bunch of grads blasting away at something(?) ; and some dropping of grenades in Ukie bunkers or foxholes by filming drones. Sometimes I wonder if this isn't a mass LARP to drain off the West of it's weapons, ammo, and money ("money" lol!) just to get everyone back into the factories again for the massive profiteering of the weapons contractors/SHAREHOLDERS?! And I cannot, for the life of me, comprehend why Dnipro hasn't been cut off, bridges blown (they ain't gonna go to the west bank) ; and all the REAL blasting of civies in DONETSK(!)...for how long now? The Ukies are in the goddamn suburbs, for God's sake.!! STILL! WTF? Where are all these sweeping tank armies, now that the ground is hardened by General Winter? I know, takes a while, and Russians are notoriously patient. We've all seen the films from TSWTKWP when Russian artillery was HUGE and sustained barrages, saturating enemy positions, followed by masses of T-34's and charging soldiers, driving back, arguably, the finest military in the world at the time under similar circumstances. Sometimes makes me ponder, forbid the thought (lol), that Vlad and Vlad ain't BOTH playing NATOMerika, breaking it and kicking the Yanks out of Europe. Methinks, from the Five Point Demands last year that this isn't what was intended all along?...BUT- I'm an "unconventional thinker" (conspiracy theorist lol). And American and Russian military manufacturers and contractors run to the bank with the Blut Geld, real or not...I want to have hope that Vlad The Impaler (Putin, not the guy with no dress-sense) is Truly on the side of Civilization, sick and tired of the notorious, lying Anglos, and ready to break Wemerika's grip on Europe-and crush the Liberal scoundrels in the Motherland as well. Edgar Cayce said that formerly Communist Russia would be "the light of the world" in the future, and I'm holding him to it. We damn sure need it. Blessings, and Happy Yuletide to you all.
The most staggering thing about this war is the complete and catastrophic incompetence from the Russian political and military leadership. The idiotic rush to Kiev at a time when everything apart from hardened roads was just mud was military idiocy. The political calculation that the Ukie political leadership would (a) negotiate a settlement, and (b) actually stick to that settlement was bordering on the bizarre (after everything since 2014). Refusing to mobilize and allowing most of the contract troops to just go home, etc etc. And on top of everything the failure to destroy the bridges across the Dnieper - which could be done and if done would make the entire Ukie position across the Dnieper very, very difficult and probably eventually impossible. The Soviets had great generals during WWII - but now they seem to be a bunch of total cretins.
I can see why some believe that it can't be just incompetence and must be the Russian leadership collaborating in some WEF plan. I haven't got to that point yet, but the level of incompetence and stupidity is so staggering, I'm beginning to wonder.
One significant optics development these past few days... on 22 December for the first time Putin called the conflict 'a war' instead of a 'special military operation', instant 0:35 onward in https://southfront.org/no-common-language-for-peace-talks/
5D force's North American brigade is meanwhile holding their positions firmly. A sample of recent ordinance:
".... as the ground in Southern Ukraine finally freezes ... Putin’s winter offensive .... is expected to crush the Ukrainian Armed Forces and bring the war to a swift end..."
you say, "Ursula von der Leyen, the gynecologist-in-chief and head mommy . . ." we live in a gynocracy now. it's simply amazing, at least to me, to see that so many of the officials at every organizational level are women.
Dec 25, 2022·edited Dec 25, 2022Liked by Rurik Skywalker
I am not only tired of the 5d pundits, I am tired of caring about what happens to Russia regarding the Ukraine. Putin openly acknowledges that this war is a fight for the survival of the country and its culture. Yet he can't, won't, or isn't allowed to do anything to truly resolve the problem.
Big problems warrant big solutions something that Russia seems adamant about not doing.
I have the same view of Russia I do of obese people or alcoholics who are suffering from health problems related to their bad habits but refuse to do anything about it except go through the motions about trying to lose weight or sober up. I lose interest.
I think a big reason for the 5d crew is that it is so obvious what needs to be done, they just can't comprehend that Russia isn't going to do it. Even Anglin who is astute on most issues is convinced that Russia is readying a major offensive. Then again, he also thinks Ye is going to be a major presidential candidate.
It was the same with the 5d wishful thinking with Trump. He had to know what was going on and needed done. He couldn't actually be doing nothing, could he?
100,000 Ukrop casualties as in just losses that arent coming back ever is believable enough after a year. If its true that the families of missing Ukrainian troops dont receive any benefits than I can totally see the jews that run Ukraine just massively inflating the missing column at the expense of the dead column. The topic of which side has taken the most losses is one where I sort of think there is some truth to the Ukrainians being on the losing end by a decent margin. Not nearly enough to make an attrition war viable by any means but I can totally see for example 30k Russian kia and something like 90k Ukrainian. But whatever the Ukrainians got like a few million more where that came from.
Sure the Russians are just banging their heads against Ukrainian fortifications but lets not lose site of the fact that for about half the war so far its been NATO/Ukraine on the offensive and these offensives were very, very bloody affairs for the Ukrainians. The first few offensives against Kherson were costly failures. Krasny Liman actually had a few well equipped militias defending it and NATO/the Ukrainians couldn't just drive in and raise the flag like at Kharkov and Kherson later on and they had to bang their heads against the wall for about a month. Furthermore the current fighting in the LNR and DNR isnt just Russia sending human waves at bunkers like some shit from enemy at the gates.
Both sides are attacking and counter attacking constantly. People love to drop "2 attack u need 3to1 superiority" but this doesn't mean you need 3 guys to kill one dude in a bunker or something. It means in order to punch a hole in the enemy's line, exploit said hole and totally encircle him you are going to need about 3 times as meany guys. Its more of a strategic formula than a tactical iron law.
So given all that lets not forget that Russia has absolutely no grand strategy in the war at all and we just have individual Russian brigades, battalions and militias along the DNR/LNR line of contact fighting their own battles which amount to trying to gain tactical advantages over the Ukrainians in front of them and vice versa. There is absolutely no strategic planning going on on the Russian political end, no objectives, no description of what victory will look like, nothing like that at all.
The reason I think that is important in regards to Russian losses is that I actually very much doubt Russian commanders at the tactical level, your platoon, company and battalion commanders are being wasteful with their mens lives, if anything in the absence of any overall goals they are probably very careful. When you know that there is no plan to end the war and the best you can do is hold the line and fight for local tactical advantages its unlikely you are going to be prone to risking your guys in costly adventures.
On the other hand a NATO/Ukrainian 3:1 advantage over the Russians is probably undercounting the Ukrainians. They do have very clear strategic goals and unlike the Russians they have been consistently aggressive. However none of their successful offensive brought any big hauls of Russian prisoners or piles of Russian corpses. The successful NATO/Ukrainian offensives were extremely reliant on cooperation from Moscow and they genuinely werent impressive victories. Not saying that out of butt hurt, im being totally objective here. The NATO/Ukrainian victories were so reliant on cooperation from the Russian side that they were achieved on "very easy" mode.
The relevance there is that there isnt any evidence whatsoever of very heavy Russian losses but you can kind of infer that the Ukrainians have taken some beatings. The fact that Russian telegram produces fresh gore porn on a daily basis whereas the Ukrainians often have to recycle is circumstantial but none the less decent evidence that the Ukrainians just generally take heavier losses. If its true that the Russians shoot 3or4 artillery shells for every one the Ukrainians shoot that will also affect the ratios and again the fight at the line of contact isn't Russians zerg rushing the Ukrainians, its a back and forth slug fest.
Last but not least lets consider that while its true that NATO/the Ukraine have launched some pretty successful offensive they have also launched a few that have flopped. The Russians just haven't launched any major offensives at all besides Mariupol and the one around Linchansk/sever Donetsk. In the scheme of things the Ukrainians have actually been on the attack as much as the Russians and they have most definitely launched more strategic level attacks including failed ones and failed strategic attacks are much more costly than tactical level fighting between 2 companies.
So anyway yeah I can totally see the Ukrainian non replacable losses being quite a bit higher but not nearly enough to matter. 100,000 permanent losses a year means russia will win a war of attrition in about a decade maybe.
Now, it rings rank cruel of Rolo to shamelessly lure the credulous 5D’ers in, and then subject those pure souls to sophisticated middle school ‘rithmetics they couldn’t ever stomach 🤦 On this very special day to boot!
Good thing the ‘just reads note cards at a podium for a living’ kinda saves the party 😂
Good analysis of these FUBAR KIA/WIA/MIA numbers. I believe you're probably closer than most.
Ultimately, I think Johnson, Martyanov, and Macgregor are also correct: This will be decided by who can produce the most materiel. NATO & it's proxies seem to be running out and lack production to resupply, and Russia seems to not have this problem (although there are reports of the Wagner group getting shells from NK).
To grok this entire mess we return to Tsar Alexander II.
Though scholars can find any dates and reason to prove a point but we ask decently clothed even if spray paint. Or any funding source and do the same. Bourgeoise hate the naked. Truth is simply what we say. Or as I was taught in 9th grade German by a Swiss Italian Meinst du das echet?
There is a medieval mindset that measures wars by kill counts.
What matters is survival of technology and food/water. And by that I include medicines, electricity, food, water, spare parts, overall logistical capacity, transport fuel, trains, trucks, lubricants, tyres, bridges, tunnels, roads, and the competent personnel to coordinate supplies. Any one of the above elements is critical and their failure can make or break success.
We have all been astonished by "Russian incompetence" but, actually, this is global and generational. Those born since 1970 lack commonsense, practical skills, and general knowledge. We are about to discover how high is the price of replacing parenting with technology and bureaucracies.
Getting back to hard core issues, NATO bluster about its military superiority will soon be exposed as first Germany, and then other nations expend their useful weaponry and fuel/oils. Swiftly, it will become horribly apparent that America's missiles are two generations behind the Russian's. Putin's final application of Zircon and Vangard missiles will prove to be the coup de grace.
Meanwhile, the US has its military muscle spread across 800 bases around the world, in countries where most people hate the US. At the point at which Putin finally uses his missile superiority, and while winter bites in, allowing use of tanks, it is predictable that the 37K standby troops in South Korea will suddenly be needed to defend American interests as the forces of Korean reconciliation come to the fore. Unless the Pentagon has taken total leave of its senses, this is no time to provoke rebellion amongst "allies" with home alliance is purely political and not social. Yet this is what is happening.
All the signs point to a fresh wave of sociopathy in both the Pentagon and White House and we may be confident that America will soon be at war on a dozen or more fronts. That will be the beginning of the end for the American Military Empire.
What we do not know, and will never find out, is how much of this is Globalist manipulated? Falling back on good old-fashioned intuition, I sense the NWO elites have miscalculated. Badly.
there were the very real video footages of Ukrainian units in Donbas claiming they are giving up because they are being wiped out last summer. The reports by locals of human meat being smelled in the area south of Liman when the Russians were advancing in the area June/July.
Mariupol last stand
The human waves of advance on Kherson in early september that were wiped out each time.
The waves that come each day towards the Russian lines in N Luhansk only to be cut down. This has been going on now for a while so maybe 200 KIA Ukrainians not too far fetched.
Remember they have had waves of mobilisations to fill the boots of those gone.
I guess you weren't able to imagine that UVderLyin purposely said 100k dead knowingingly because she was hoping to horrify her audience with the tragedy and waste of it all, and that she wanted thereby to bring the mess somehow to a conclusion? Letting the macho military monsters be proud of a high corpse count in other words. No, I guess not.
Great, now do the holocaust numbers pls!
Thank you for the article. Indeed, slinging around outrageous numbers like *any* "hundreds of thousands" is absurd from all that I have seen. Combat footage (if you want to call it that) generally is showing explosions of a vehicle from artillery, a small squad (recon) being vaped, bunch of grads blasting away at something(?) ; and some dropping of grenades in Ukie bunkers or foxholes by filming drones. Sometimes I wonder if this isn't a mass LARP to drain off the West of it's weapons, ammo, and money ("money" lol!) just to get everyone back into the factories again for the massive profiteering of the weapons contractors/SHAREHOLDERS?! And I cannot, for the life of me, comprehend why Dnipro hasn't been cut off, bridges blown (they ain't gonna go to the west bank) ; and all the REAL blasting of civies in DONETSK(!)...for how long now? The Ukies are in the goddamn suburbs, for God's sake.!! STILL! WTF? Where are all these sweeping tank armies, now that the ground is hardened by General Winter? I know, takes a while, and Russians are notoriously patient. We've all seen the films from TSWTKWP when Russian artillery was HUGE and sustained barrages, saturating enemy positions, followed by masses of T-34's and charging soldiers, driving back, arguably, the finest military in the world at the time under similar circumstances. Sometimes makes me ponder, forbid the thought (lol), that Vlad and Vlad ain't BOTH playing NATOMerika, breaking it and kicking the Yanks out of Europe. Methinks, from the Five Point Demands last year that this isn't what was intended all along?...BUT- I'm an "unconventional thinker" (conspiracy theorist lol). And American and Russian military manufacturers and contractors run to the bank with the Blut Geld, real or not...I want to have hope that Vlad The Impaler (Putin, not the guy with no dress-sense) is Truly on the side of Civilization, sick and tired of the notorious, lying Anglos, and ready to break Wemerika's grip on Europe-and crush the Liberal scoundrels in the Motherland as well. Edgar Cayce said that formerly Communist Russia would be "the light of the world" in the future, and I'm holding him to it. We damn sure need it. Blessings, and Happy Yuletide to you all.
Best and best grounded estimates I've seen.
The most staggering thing about this war is the complete and catastrophic incompetence from the Russian political and military leadership. The idiotic rush to Kiev at a time when everything apart from hardened roads was just mud was military idiocy. The political calculation that the Ukie political leadership would (a) negotiate a settlement, and (b) actually stick to that settlement was bordering on the bizarre (after everything since 2014). Refusing to mobilize and allowing most of the contract troops to just go home, etc etc. And on top of everything the failure to destroy the bridges across the Dnieper - which could be done and if done would make the entire Ukie position across the Dnieper very, very difficult and probably eventually impossible. The Soviets had great generals during WWII - but now they seem to be a bunch of total cretins.
I can see why some believe that it can't be just incompetence and must be the Russian leadership collaborating in some WEF plan. I haven't got to that point yet, but the level of incompetence and stupidity is so staggering, I'm beginning to wonder.
One significant optics development these past few days... on 22 December for the first time Putin called the conflict 'a war' instead of a 'special military operation', instant 0:35 onward in https://southfront.org/no-common-language-for-peace-talks/
5D force's North American brigade is meanwhile holding their positions firmly. A sample of recent ordinance:
".... as the ground in Southern Ukraine finally freezes ... Putin’s winter offensive .... is expected to crush the Ukrainian Armed Forces and bring the war to a swift end..."
you say, "Ursula von der Leyen, the gynecologist-in-chief and head mommy . . ." we live in a gynocracy now. it's simply amazing, at least to me, to see that so many of the officials at every organizational level are women.
Reasonable estimate.
I am not only tired of the 5d pundits, I am tired of caring about what happens to Russia regarding the Ukraine. Putin openly acknowledges that this war is a fight for the survival of the country and its culture. Yet he can't, won't, or isn't allowed to do anything to truly resolve the problem.
Big problems warrant big solutions something that Russia seems adamant about not doing.
I have the same view of Russia I do of obese people or alcoholics who are suffering from health problems related to their bad habits but refuse to do anything about it except go through the motions about trying to lose weight or sober up. I lose interest.
I think a big reason for the 5d crew is that it is so obvious what needs to be done, they just can't comprehend that Russia isn't going to do it. Even Anglin who is astute on most issues is convinced that Russia is readying a major offensive. Then again, he also thinks Ye is going to be a major presidential candidate.
It was the same with the 5d wishful thinking with Trump. He had to know what was going on and needed done. He couldn't actually be doing nothing, could he?
100,000 Ukrop casualties as in just losses that arent coming back ever is believable enough after a year. If its true that the families of missing Ukrainian troops dont receive any benefits than I can totally see the jews that run Ukraine just massively inflating the missing column at the expense of the dead column. The topic of which side has taken the most losses is one where I sort of think there is some truth to the Ukrainians being on the losing end by a decent margin. Not nearly enough to make an attrition war viable by any means but I can totally see for example 30k Russian kia and something like 90k Ukrainian. But whatever the Ukrainians got like a few million more where that came from.
Sure the Russians are just banging their heads against Ukrainian fortifications but lets not lose site of the fact that for about half the war so far its been NATO/Ukraine on the offensive and these offensives were very, very bloody affairs for the Ukrainians. The first few offensives against Kherson were costly failures. Krasny Liman actually had a few well equipped militias defending it and NATO/the Ukrainians couldn't just drive in and raise the flag like at Kharkov and Kherson later on and they had to bang their heads against the wall for about a month. Furthermore the current fighting in the LNR and DNR isnt just Russia sending human waves at bunkers like some shit from enemy at the gates.
Both sides are attacking and counter attacking constantly. People love to drop "2 attack u need 3to1 superiority" but this doesn't mean you need 3 guys to kill one dude in a bunker or something. It means in order to punch a hole in the enemy's line, exploit said hole and totally encircle him you are going to need about 3 times as meany guys. Its more of a strategic formula than a tactical iron law.
So given all that lets not forget that Russia has absolutely no grand strategy in the war at all and we just have individual Russian brigades, battalions and militias along the DNR/LNR line of contact fighting their own battles which amount to trying to gain tactical advantages over the Ukrainians in front of them and vice versa. There is absolutely no strategic planning going on on the Russian political end, no objectives, no description of what victory will look like, nothing like that at all.
The reason I think that is important in regards to Russian losses is that I actually very much doubt Russian commanders at the tactical level, your platoon, company and battalion commanders are being wasteful with their mens lives, if anything in the absence of any overall goals they are probably very careful. When you know that there is no plan to end the war and the best you can do is hold the line and fight for local tactical advantages its unlikely you are going to be prone to risking your guys in costly adventures.
On the other hand a NATO/Ukrainian 3:1 advantage over the Russians is probably undercounting the Ukrainians. They do have very clear strategic goals and unlike the Russians they have been consistently aggressive. However none of their successful offensive brought any big hauls of Russian prisoners or piles of Russian corpses. The successful NATO/Ukrainian offensives were extremely reliant on cooperation from Moscow and they genuinely werent impressive victories. Not saying that out of butt hurt, im being totally objective here. The NATO/Ukrainian victories were so reliant on cooperation from the Russian side that they were achieved on "very easy" mode.
The relevance there is that there isnt any evidence whatsoever of very heavy Russian losses but you can kind of infer that the Ukrainians have taken some beatings. The fact that Russian telegram produces fresh gore porn on a daily basis whereas the Ukrainians often have to recycle is circumstantial but none the less decent evidence that the Ukrainians just generally take heavier losses. If its true that the Russians shoot 3or4 artillery shells for every one the Ukrainians shoot that will also affect the ratios and again the fight at the line of contact isn't Russians zerg rushing the Ukrainians, its a back and forth slug fest.
Last but not least lets consider that while its true that NATO/the Ukraine have launched some pretty successful offensive they have also launched a few that have flopped. The Russians just haven't launched any major offensives at all besides Mariupol and the one around Linchansk/sever Donetsk. In the scheme of things the Ukrainians have actually been on the attack as much as the Russians and they have most definitely launched more strategic level attacks including failed ones and failed strategic attacks are much more costly than tactical level fighting between 2 companies.
So anyway yeah I can totally see the Ukrainian non replacable losses being quite a bit higher but not nearly enough to matter. 100,000 permanent losses a year means russia will win a war of attrition in about a decade maybe.
Now, it rings rank cruel of Rolo to shamelessly lure the credulous 5D’ers in, and then subject those pure souls to sophisticated middle school ‘rithmetics they couldn’t ever stomach 🤦 On this very special day to boot!
Good thing the ‘just reads note cards at a podium for a living’ kinda saves the party 😂
Good analysis of these FUBAR KIA/WIA/MIA numbers. I believe you're probably closer than most.
Ultimately, I think Johnson, Martyanov, and Macgregor are also correct: This will be decided by who can produce the most materiel. NATO & it's proxies seem to be running out and lack production to resupply, and Russia seems to not have this problem (although there are reports of the Wagner group getting shells from NK).
https://sonar21.com/
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
https://futuredefensevisions.blogspot.com/
Good points. Everyone lies. And everyone plays in the same football league. Ukraine especially. Beloved of NATO, darling of Israel, step brother of Russia, pimped by the elite of the Orgy. In any war with Ukraine Russia is not winning. Or not winning in a certain way cultivated in the popular imagination and not winning in any sense of ending conflict and human casualties. Maybe the reason hath reasons. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/are-ukraines-vast-natural-resources-a-real-reason-behind-russias-invasion-323894-2022-02-25
To grok this entire mess we return to Tsar Alexander II.
Though scholars can find any dates and reason to prove a point but we ask decently clothed even if spray paint. Or any funding source and do the same. Bourgeoise hate the naked. Truth is simply what we say. Or as I was taught in 9th grade German by a Swiss Italian Meinst du das echet?
I'm going to say 100K KIA. It's an artillery war, your either dead or not.
There is a medieval mindset that measures wars by kill counts.
What matters is survival of technology and food/water. And by that I include medicines, electricity, food, water, spare parts, overall logistical capacity, transport fuel, trains, trucks, lubricants, tyres, bridges, tunnels, roads, and the competent personnel to coordinate supplies. Any one of the above elements is critical and their failure can make or break success.
We have all been astonished by "Russian incompetence" but, actually, this is global and generational. Those born since 1970 lack commonsense, practical skills, and general knowledge. We are about to discover how high is the price of replacing parenting with technology and bureaucracies.
Getting back to hard core issues, NATO bluster about its military superiority will soon be exposed as first Germany, and then other nations expend their useful weaponry and fuel/oils. Swiftly, it will become horribly apparent that America's missiles are two generations behind the Russian's. Putin's final application of Zircon and Vangard missiles will prove to be the coup de grace.
Meanwhile, the US has its military muscle spread across 800 bases around the world, in countries where most people hate the US. At the point at which Putin finally uses his missile superiority, and while winter bites in, allowing use of tanks, it is predictable that the 37K standby troops in South Korea will suddenly be needed to defend American interests as the forces of Korean reconciliation come to the fore. Unless the Pentagon has taken total leave of its senses, this is no time to provoke rebellion amongst "allies" with home alliance is purely political and not social. Yet this is what is happening.
All the signs point to a fresh wave of sociopathy in both the Pentagon and White House and we may be confident that America will soon be at war on a dozen or more fronts. That will be the beginning of the end for the American Military Empire.
What we do not know, and will never find out, is how much of this is Globalist manipulated? Falling back on good old-fashioned intuition, I sense the NWO elites have miscalculated. Badly.
I was sceptical too BUT :
there were the very real video footages of Ukrainian units in Donbas claiming they are giving up because they are being wiped out last summer. The reports by locals of human meat being smelled in the area south of Liman when the Russians were advancing in the area June/July.
Mariupol last stand
The human waves of advance on Kherson in early september that were wiped out each time.
The waves that come each day towards the Russian lines in N Luhansk only to be cut down. This has been going on now for a while so maybe 200 KIA Ukrainians not too far fetched.
Remember they have had waves of mobilisations to fill the boots of those gone.
I guess you weren't able to imagine that UVderLyin purposely said 100k dead knowingingly because she was hoping to horrify her audience with the tragedy and waste of it all, and that she wanted thereby to bring the mess somehow to a conclusion? Letting the macho military monsters be proud of a high corpse count in other words. No, I guess not.