It seems that the official decision has been made. Shoigu met with Surovikin and they decided that Kherson would be abandoned.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered his troops to withdraw from the southern city of Kherson on Wednesday, marking a significant retreat for Russia.
The city of Kherson is situated to the north of the Dnipro River on the left bank.
Defense Minister Shoigu and General Sergey Surovikin said that troops should regroup on the other side of the river, as Ukrainian forces advance.
"Having comprehensively assessed the current situation, it is proposed to take up defence along the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River," said Surovikin in a televised briefing.
What can I say other than that I totally called it.
For those keeping score at home, that’s another big prediction I made that came true. Rolo: 2; 5D Dunces: -6,000,000.
Now we have to see if the withdrawal is any good. I think it will be fine. They had a while to prepare. Civilians have been evacuated this time. And I don’t think that they’ll be leaving behind supplies.
Also, the guy I wrote about, Stremousov, the deputy replacement civilian admin of the Kherson region was assassinated right after he sounded the alarm about the abandonment of Kherson. We don’t have enough info on that to figure out who killed him or why. But, he was a blogger and a COVID dissident, so he was one of the good ones. Big F for him.
Frankly, I don’t even see what the problem with abandoning Kherson is. If anything it shows that the politicians making insane demands of the army bowed to military reality and made the hard, face-losing decision. Soldiers lives have been saved and a potential encirclement avoided. Win, win.
This is also another win for the patriots in Russia who have been sounding the alarm about incompetence in the Russian government and the need for heads to roll. If heads start rolling, Russia will gain more from this withdrawal than they lost. We’re looking at a possible win hat trick here.
But, alright, let’s be real here. The point of rushing the referendum was to reassure the new territories that they wouldn’t be abandoned. And now, well, it’s not good for optics. Again though, sacrificing soldiers lives for good optics and PR was the MO for the last 9 months. Are we really sad that the decided to stop doing that? I see this is a hopeful sign. Russia’s army is being allowed to make the hard, but necessary decisions now and not being forced to follow the insane dictates of clueless bureaucrats in Moscow.
I’ll have a lot more to write about in the coming days. But for now I’m going to need you guys to smash that like button, subscribe and share my blog wide and far in the Russia blogosphere because I went long on a hard, unpopular decision that lost me subs and now I’ve been VINDICATED yet again.
And hey, maybe if I’m able to see straight when it comes to stuff like war, I’ve also got some insights into metaphysics and populism that are worth considering too. Just a thought.
I've missed your essays over the past ten days or so. I'm so glad you're back & writing.
Come to think of it, in a world that seems filled to overflowing with politics and war, reading an essay on metaphysics would be like applying salve to an infected wound.
That's a pretty decent assessment on your part Rolo.
A definite advantage to the retreat option will see attempts to blow the Nova Kakhovka dam & flood the area, towns & Kherson will cease with the Russians gone.
Lives conserved, substantial infrastructure de-risked and wider land area spared devastation.
That's already a win plus the military will certainly fight another day & another way for the next win.