Russia is a master at geopolitics.
That is why Finland recently joined NATO, an outcome that Russia was supposedly trying to prevent for decades. Now, I know what you are thinking. What did our man in the big chair in Moscow have to say about this?
Back in May, he said that it wasn’t a big deal, not a threat, and that Russia would react in kind.
Then we recently got some statements from the Russian MFA that, presumably, conveyed at least some of Putin’s recent sentiments.
Russia will be forced to take measures in connection with Finland's entry into NATO
Finland's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance creates threats for Russia, Moscow will be forced to take a number of measures to stop them. This is stated in a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday in connection with the completion of the process of registration of Finland's membership in NATO.
The Russian Foreign Ministry recalled that the Russian side had repeatedly warned that "it would be forced to take retaliatory measures, both military-technical and other, in order to stop the threats to our national security arising from Finland's entry into NATO."
So, more of the same basically. I mean, obviously Finland joining NATO is a threat. But the question is: what kept Finland out of NATO before this?
The answer is unclear. But, it seems that with the coming of age of woke Millennial politics in Finland, the more sober faction of cautious policy makers were shown the door. The Finnish people voted out Sanna Marin, but her bellicose anti-Russia and pro-war policies stayed in place. Obviously, I don’t think that this dumb girl was making any actual policy decisions. She was simply a fig leaf for neoliberal or neocon (no difference really) interests taking over Finland’s government.
It does beg the question: what measures did Russia take to prevent this from occurring. What has the regent been doing all this time?
Perhaps we ought to consider what the US would do in a similar situation. Well, usually, when a country doesn’t acquiesce to America’s demands, the State Department springs into action. A network of NGOs, opposition activists, financial and business institutions and international media and so on start putting the pressure on the government to reconsider their unfortunate new policies.
Barring that, the Americans simply topple the government.
Russia does not do this because Russia can’t do this. They have not built up similar networks of influence. This was simply against Kremlin foreign policy for many years. At the most, they fostered business ties in the near abroad and hoped that mutual interest would serve as enough of a buffer on anti-Russia measures taken by these governments. In other words, Russia has talked up a storm, but, as we can see for ourselves, had no actual ability to inflict costs of Finland and deter them from joining NATO. Diplomacy doesn’t work unless both countries have knives pressed at each other’s throats and decide that talking is a better outcome to, well, something else. Because Russia doesn’t have any means by which to inflict pain and consequences, and the US does, well, you get the thing at this point, I hope.
Which brings us neatly to Armenia. They almost joined NATO military drills this year, despite ostensibly being in a military alliance with Russia:
The U.S. Department of Defense removed Armenia on Thursday from the list of participants of an upcoming U.S.-led military exercise in Europe released by it on Wednesday.
Armenia was initially listed among 26 countries which the Pentagon said will take part in the Defender 23 exercise designed to “deter those who would threaten the peace of Europe and defend the continent from aggression.”
“Approximately 9,000 U.S. troops and about 17,000 troops from 26 allied and partner nations will participate and portions of the exercise will stretch across 10 different European countries,” Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, told reporters late on Wednesday.
The Armenian Defense Ministry did not confirm its participation in the two-month drills that will begin on April 22.
A report on Singh’s announcement posted on the Pentagon’s website was edited on Thursday evening to exclude Armenia from the list. No official explanation was given for that revision. The Armenian government did not comment on it either.
It was thus not clear whether Yerevan had initially agreed to join the war games before deciding to pull out of them.
The Armenian military was reportedly close to sending troops to the U.S.-led drills held in 2021 but opted out of them at the last minute. It said at the time that Armenian soldiers join only those NATO drills that simulate international peacekeeping operations and train military personnel for them.
Armenia’s relations with Russia, its traditional ally, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have deteriorated in recent months due to what Yerevan sees as a lack of support from its allies in the conflict with Azerbaijan.
Earlier this year, the Armenian government cancelled a CSTO military exercise planned in Armenia and refused to appoint a deputy secretary-general of the Russian-led military alliance It also rejected other CSTO member states’ offer to deploy a monitoring mission to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
The unprecedented tensions have called into question Armenia’s continued membership in the CSTO. A senior Russian diplomat said last week that Moscow hopes to end the South Caucasus country’s growing estrangement from its CSTO allies.
If Moscow counted on Yerevan not pursuing a suicidal policy of breaking ties with Russia despite Russia being the only guarantor of any semblance of Armenian security in the region, they may have to revisit those calculations. Does Nagorno-Karabakh really matter to Armenia’s political elite, who are almost all sourced from a Western diaspora? It seems to me that a significant chunk of Armenians are quite comfortable with political exile as the last several centuries have shown. There are more Armenians living abroad than in Armenia, which is a poor and dusty place.
The choice for many of Armenia’s politicians seems quite simple: take the US bribe and retire gracefully to the West or continue trying to hold off Turkey and Azerbaijan. We will see what they decide soon enough, I suppose.
Seeing as they have declared themselves ready and willing to arrest Putin should he decide to come over for a visit, I’d say that the decision has already been made, and now it is only a matter of deciding how to manage the fallout for the inevitable “knife in the back”. Can you already guess what the Kremlin will say when this happens?
Something like: “We were too innocent and pure to expect such low treachery from our esteemed colleagues,” if I had to guess.
Which brings us neatly to China, which recently clarified the nature of their special friendship with Russia. First, Putin clarified that there was no special military alliance between Russia and China. Then, Beijing clarified their relationship with Russia and reaffirmed their non-recognition of Russia’s annexed territories in the Donbass. China abides by Western sanctions and does not provide Russia with weapons. They are not serving as Russia’s war factory and have no plans to start doing so any time soon. As far as I can tell, the extent of their “help” has been to refrain from condemning Russia on the world stage and to continue to buy up Russia’s raw resources on the cheap. This is, at least, a rare example of a country actually pursuing their rational self-interests and not picking a fight with Russia for no other reason other than their elites being bought and paid for by the West. We should be grateful for that, I suppose.
Which brings us neatly to Kazakhstan.
What else is there to say about Kazakhstan other than what I said already? [Great article, you should pay me money to read it.] Suffice it to say, Kazakhstan is simply a question of “when” not “if” at this point. But does the Kremlin realize this?
“Yes, of course they do, Rolo,” you say.
If that is the case, are they preparing a pro-Russian network in Russia? Sounding the alarm about the mistreatment and crackdown on Russians in Kazakhstan by the government? I sure haven’t heard anything of the kind. But here’s what I did hear. Tokayev, after being saved by Russia from a color coup, appointed a vocal anti-Russian to the position of Minister of Information.
Askar Umanov is so anti-Russian that he was actually banned entry into the Russian Federation, which is saying something, seeing as Moscow pursued a policy of rolling out the red carpet for anti-Russians for many years.
In fact, the new propaganda khan has openly voiced support for conquering the Russian territories of Omsk and Orenburg claiming that they rightfully belong to Kazakhstan. What will happen to the Russians living there? Ethnic cleansing, no doubt, something that the Kazakhs have periodically indulged themselves in on multiple occasions throughout their history of turbulent relations with the Russians. Umanov has also openly stated that Russians in Kazakhstan better keep their heads down if the know what is good for them.
The threat isn’t even veiled at this point.
According to Daniel Rosenblum, the US Ambassador to Kazakhstan, the US already provides weapons and training to Uzbekistan, a vocally anti-Russian country that sends hundreds of thousands of migrants to Russia visa-free every year. And they are considering providing weapons and training to Kazakhstan as well soon.
Well, it doesn’t take a Nostradamus to guess what the US plan is here.
Which brings us neatly to Georgia.
Apparently, according to some Russian security analysts, the US is trying to convince Georgia to attack South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
"The West is forcing Georgia to enter into a military conflict with Russia. In this situation, one should rely on the wisdom of the Georgian people. But here it should be noted that the leadership in the current situation should be guided by the fact that gingerbread, sweets and lure, that they will accept Georgia into NATO , is another trap for the Georgian people, which is being prepared in Washington," the expert explained.
They are one maidan away from getting their wish. Last time I was in Tbilisi, the place was crawling with American soldiers who had decided to vacation there. I suppose they had simply gotten on the wrong flight and ended up in country and not the state. Yeah, I’m sure that’s what happened.
Which brings us neatly to Mongolia.
…
I actually know nothing about Mongolia other than they want to take away Tuva from Russia. Which, good riddance?
**
Russia’s list of allies grows thin indeed.
Putin once quoted the old Tsar and said:
Russia has just two allies, the armed forces and the navy.
This is just further proof that he predicted everything that was going to happen.
Predicted everything and did nothing to prepare that is. For shame. Where are Russia’s armies?
You got a helluva insight to all this, very impressive
Sorta related to the geo political theme but those другая Россия Е.L. guys did a cool banner drop which read "Ministry of foreign affairs stop being cuckolds" in Penza on an overpass. Of course stuff like this will change nothing in the scheme of things if we are talking about the course of Russian policy for the foreseeable future. But its just cool that there are grassroots legit opposition in Russia. To add some context to what the drop was about here is the VK blurb from them about it:
𝘖𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘢𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘶𝘯𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘗𝘦𝘯𝘻𝘢 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘣𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘣𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘢𝘯 "𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺, 𝘋𝘖𝘕'𝘛 𝘉𝘌 𝘈 𝘗𝘜𝘗𝘗𝘌𝘛! " 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘪𝘥𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘖𝘬𝘵𝘺𝘢𝘣𝘳𝘴𝘬𝘺 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵.
(The machine translation is a bit clunky, the banner read dont be cuckolds, the puppet references in the translation should be understood as refering to cuckoldry)
𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘈𝘧𝘧𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘻𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘢𝘥 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰-𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯/𝘱𝘳𝘰-𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘯, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵. 𝘏𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵, 𝘰𝘳 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘦𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘯. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰—𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 - 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘶𝘤𝘬 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺, 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵.
𝘈𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘎𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘵𝘣𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘭 𝘑𝘢𝘤𝘰𝘣𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘫𝘢𝘪𝘭 𝘪𝘯 𝘎𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘺. 𝘏𝘦 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘦𝘥 8 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴! 𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘔𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥, 𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘣𝘢𝘴𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘭𝘴𝘰 𝘢 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘪-𝘨𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴. 𝘞𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘭 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱!
𝘈𝘭𝘴𝘰, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘒𝘢𝘻𝘢𝘬𝘩𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯, 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘴, 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘭𝘴𝘰 𝘢 𝘴𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘦. 𝘌𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘬 𝘛𝘢𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘬𝘰𝘷, 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘰-𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘒𝘢𝘻𝘢𝘬𝘩𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯, 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘭𝘴𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘰𝘰𝘯. 𝘞𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘌𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘬 𝘛𝘢𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘬𝘰𝘷 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱!
𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢 𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘈𝘧𝘧𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘴. 𝘞𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰-𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯/𝘱𝘳𝘰-𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘢𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘥, 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘯𝘴, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘴!
https://vk.com/wall-55790675_265649
Most the readers of the blog would probably take issue with granting the Kazakh citizenship as his name certainly doesn't sound Russian and I would share that concern. And другая Россия as a rule is anti immigration from the stans. However the basic point of maybe doing something to support the guys in prison for being pro Russian stands. I mean Moscow is happy to import hundreds of thousands of Kazhaks who hate Russia every year but they cant be bothered to help the few in prison in Kazhakstan for being pro Russia? Its absurd.
If I had to guess the Kazakh is probably some guy old enough to remember the better days for Kazhakstan when it was part of the USSR and he is just nostalgic enough about it to go to jail. Its another illustration of how when it comes to the Soviet period Moscow picks the worst approach possible. Russia keeps Cherubashka and the spook apparatus that nurtures non Russian nationalism while cracking down on Russian nationalism. Meanwhile that fast declining population in the FSU that remembers the USSR fondly and is friendly to Russia by association the spooks and Moscow have no time for. Its just how the hell has it come to this?
As for the German why not offer him citizenship? Even if the dude declines it would just be a sign that Moscow isnt indifferent and that would go a long way. But Moscow doesn't care. They arent about advancing Russias interest.